Contents
Background
Household Impacts
National Impacts
Poverty Impact
Conclusion
The
PolicyEngine projects that in 2026, the FISC Act would:
Reduce federal tax revenue by $193 billion
Increase net income for 37% of US residents
Lower the Supplemental Poverty Measure by 9.2% and child poverty by 17.7%
The FISC Act would create a new refundable family income supplement credit with the following structure:
A monthly base credit amount of $400 per child under six or $250 per child over six or under eighteen years of age
An additional monthly $400 for pregnant mothers after the first five pregnancy months
A 20% marriage bonus, which is applied to the total monthly credit amount
The credit phases in linearly with earnings and phases out monthly by $16.67 for each $1,000 increment of adjusted gross income over $125,000 ($250,000 for joint filers).
This new credit’s cost is partially offset by the repeal of the existing Child Tax Credit.
Considering a married couple in Virginia with $40,000 of earnings and two children aged 3 and 10. Under the FISC Act,
Figure 1 shows how this household’s experience
Figure 1: Household Net Income Impact of the FISC Act by Household Earnings
Figure 2. shows how the FISC Act alters the household’s marginal tax rates, with the steeper phase-in structure being reflected in the earnings up to $17,000.
Figure 2: Change in Marginal Tax Rates based on Household Earnings
The new credit amount varies with children’s ages while adding an additional pregnancy credit amount. Figure 3 shows the impacts of this credit on net income of a single parent with one child of varying ages. We currently lump four months of the $400 pregnancy credit in with 12 months of the $400 base credit for parents of newborns, applying the full $6,400 in the same year, though we
Figure 3: Change in Household Net Income Under the FISC Act based on Child Ages
Using PolicyEngine’s microsimulation capabilities, and assuming no behavioral responses, we estimate the national impacts of the FISC Act in the 2026 fiscal year.
The FISC Act would reduce federal revenues by
Figure 4: Average Change in Net Income by Income Decile in 2026
Table 1: 10-Year Budgetary Impact of the FISC Act
37% of US residents would gain: 50% of those in the sixth decile and 14% of those in the upper decile representing the extrema.
Figure 5: Winners and Losers of the FISC Act in 2026
The FISC Act would lower the nation’s Supplemental Poverty Measure by
Figure 6: Poverty Impact of the FISC Act in 2026
Representative Golden’s FISC Act would replace the Child Tax Credit with a larger credit that varies with child age and marital status, and introduce a pregnancy credit. It would cost $193 billion in 2026, providing larger benefits to households in the middle of the income distribution than those in the top or bottom deciles. Without considering behavioral responses, it would reduce poverty and
To explore how this policy would affect your household or to design your own reform, visit
pavel makarchuk
Economist at PolicyEngine
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